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January 11th, 2026 12:29 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
cali4nickationThe year is 2028. The unemployment rate is 99.7%.
You receive your $700 UBI from the government.
You have 3 days to gamble it on a prediction market
to make your $2,800/mo rent on a studio apartment
70 miles outside Tulsa, OK.
You receive your $700 UBI from the government.
You have 3 days to gamble it on a prediction market
to make your $2,800/mo rent on a studio apartment
70 miles outside Tulsa, OK.
"I’ve had dozens of conversations with founders and CEOs over the past few months, and the theme is remarkably consistent. Everyone wants flat headcount - or close to it - paired with strong growth. Some are even more aggressive: they want to shrink headcount while growing 40%+.
Most of the CEOs I know think half their team is still the wrong team. Not wrong in the 2019 sense of "not a culture fit" or "B-player." Wrong in the sense of: they don’t really understand AI. They don’t use AI tools daily. They can’t manage AI agents. They couldn’t architect an agentic workflow if their job depended on it. And here’s the uncomfortable part: their job does depend on it. They just don’t know it yet.
I’ve talked to founders who have invested heavily in AI training for their teams. The results? Mixed at best. Some employees get it. They become 3x more productive. They’re automating parts of their own jobs and reinvesting that time into higher-value work. But a significant chunk - maybe 40%, maybe 50% - just… don’t get it. They attend the training. They nod along. And then they go back to doing their job exactly the same way they did it in 2022. These aren’t bad employees by traditional metrics. They’re often experienced, hard-working, loyal. But they’re operating in a paradigm that’s rapidly becoming obsolete.
Here’s the paradox: nearly every startup I know is trying to hire more engineers. Engineering headcount is the one area where most CEOs say "yes, I’d add more if I could find the right people." But - and this is crucial - they don’t want the same engineers they would have hired two years ago.
Not wanted:
Developers who resist AI coding tools
"Good but not great" computer science grads
Engineers who see GitHub Copilot as cheating
Mid-pack graduates from non-elite CS programs
Developers who can’t context-switch between AI-assisted and traditional coding
Highly wanted:
Developers who are masters of AI-fueled coding
Engineers who can architect and manage LLM-based systems
People who understand prompt engineering at a deep level
Developers who can build with, on top of, and around foundation models
Engineers who view AI tools as multipliers, not threats"
VC на самом деле обычно видят будущее адекватно и заранее в силу профессии. Проблема в том что вот в этом описании я не то чтобы сопротивляюсь. Но ощущение что программисты вроде меня и программирование как я его видел с Бейсик Вильнюс на БК в 1990 в это царствие божие не попадут.
Надо бы конечно почитать книги про агентов. Но когда я их листаю ощущение как от промптов - шаманизм с бубном и систематический взгляд не вырабатывается. Не вижу я себя в прекрасном будущем и вызывает оно у меня ужас если честно. Удовольствие от программирования в мире вайб кодинга я представить пока не могу.
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